relick
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Post by relick on Dec 25, 2015 13:54:51 GMT
Well, I can believe that reasoning. If he turns out not to be the shrine maiden then I'll go back to my previous suspicion of potato.
##Unvote: Proto
##Vote: Vex
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vexoftheabyss
Some kind of guy
Posts: 101 
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Post by vexoftheabyss on Dec 25, 2015 14:08:18 GMT
I am merely doing something this because of youe own suspicious actions Proto, I believe you are simply trying to shift the view from you being the shrine maiden to me being the shrine maiden with no real evidence pointing to me as being it. Simply reinforcing my own suspicions I have of you.
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Crystal Clear
that
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Post by Crystal Clear on Dec 25, 2015 17:57:58 GMT
Proto has a fair point (oh wow, he's so convincing)
well then:
##Unvote:sans
##Vote:Vex
"I believe you are simply trying to shift the view from you being the shrine maiden to me being the shrine maiden with no real evidence pointing to me as being it"
That's a probability, however he still has evidence, your behaviour, but if you don't turn out to be the shrine maiden, then it's surely Proto (or to a lesser extent Tim)
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Ariezza
Promised Arclight
Posts: 615 
There is now only a white phantom that looks like you
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Post by Ariezza on Dec 25, 2015 23:57:10 GMT
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TimoteTh3God
Super Duper High School Tilter
Posts: 168
Extreme Tilt
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Post by TimoteTh3God on Dec 26, 2015 2:32:48 GMT
shit lol Proto makes a lot of good points that I didnt notice before I am merely doing something this because of youe own suspicious actions Proto, I believe you are simply trying to shift the view from you being the shrine maiden to me being the shrine maiden with no real evidence pointing to me as being it. Simply reinforcing my own suspicions I have of you. isnt that what someone who IS A SHRINE MAIDEN WOULD SAY!? jokes aside, i gotta agree with Proto. ##Unvote: Proto##Vote: Vexif it aint you and Proto is just really convincing, sorry lol |
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Ariezza
Promised Arclight
Posts: 615
There is now only a white phantom that looks like you
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Post by Ariezza on Dec 26, 2015 2:45:22 GMT
Day 2 has ended##Unvote: Proto##Vote: Vexif it aint you and Proto is just really convincing, sorry lol  This is a hammer. Vex has been hammered. He is a Babysitter.
Day 3 has started
Players alive:
1. relick 2. Proto 3. Crystal Clear 4. A Certain Remilia 5. TimoteTh3God Phase End would be in my school hour, so it might be a few hours late. 
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relick
Welcome to Eientei!
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Post by relick on Dec 26, 2015 2:46:09 GMT
##Vote: Proto
Consistency.
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TimoteTh3God
Super Duper High School Tilter
Posts: 168
Extreme Tilt
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Post by TimoteTh3God on Dec 26, 2015 2:57:26 GMT
gg i got baited
##Vote:Proto
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Proto
It looks kind of like a big fluffy muffin!
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Post by Proto on Dec 26, 2015 3:58:33 GMT
Bleh, Javex wasn't the Shrine Maiden. relick, you're getting pretty rash there. We're down two Babysitters, which means either one faction has no Babysitters, or both of them are missing one. And the Shrine Maiden is still alive... If I'm not the Shrine Maiden and I get lynched, the actual Shrine Maiden would have a pretty high chance of victory. Are you sure you want to quickly establish a vote at this stage? |
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Proto
It looks kind of like a big fluffy muffin!
Posts: 343
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Post by Proto on Dec 26, 2015 4:00:18 GMT
Oh, wow, I didn't even notice temmie's post there. Do you guys seriously want to rush into a lynch now?
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Proto
It looks kind of like a big fluffy muffin!
Posts: 343
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Post by Proto on Dec 26, 2015 4:02:56 GMT
TimoteTh3God do you really want to hastily rush into a lynch now?
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Proto
It looks kind of like a big fluffy muffin!
Posts: 343
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Post by Proto on Dec 26, 2015 4:09:14 GMT
Guys, seriously, I have an idea that should improve our chances of lynching the Shrine Maiden but stop trying to lynch me first!
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Proto
It looks kind of like a big fluffy muffin!
Posts: 343
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Post by Proto on Dec 26, 2015 4:09:59 GMT
LIKE SERIOUSLY DON'T YOU GUYS SEE HOW CRITICAL THIS SITUATION IS??? WHY ARE YOU SO EAGER TO FREAKING VOTE???
Calm down, unvote, and let's think this through really carefully.
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relick
Welcome to Eientei!
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Post by relick on Dec 26, 2015 4:17:08 GMT
Let me tell you something then. Whoever decides to hammer you is in fact the shrine maiden. If no one does, then you're safe and can explain what you want to. It could mean me, or tim, or you are the shrine maiden, or someone else who will now not hammer thanks to this being made public. If you're hammered, though, at least we catch them.
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Proto
It looks kind of like a big fluffy muffin!
Posts: 343
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Post by Proto on Dec 26, 2015 4:31:13 GMT
Nope, you won't catch the Shrine Maiden. If I'm not the Shrine Maiden, your chances of winning are really slim. Remember, the Shrine Maiden can spend all of their kills at the time when they die. Even if you know exactly who the Shrime Maiden is, there is a very high chance that the Shrine Maiden will win anyway and the rest of the players will all lose. I'm not going to get into the details of the probabilities since I'm not going to claim my role or discuss optimal Shrine Maiden strategies, but you can do the math yourself and find that the Shrine Maiden would be in a huge advantage in this situation.
So stop leaving me at L-1 now, please, unless you really want the Shrine Maiden to win.
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Proto
It looks kind of like a big fluffy muffin!
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Post by Proto on Dec 26, 2015 4:37:22 GMT
relick TimoteTh3God I don't think it's a good idea to rashly let somebody get lynched easily today, even if you can find the Shrine Maiden. If we don't lynch the Shrine Maiden today, the Shrine Maiden will very likely win. I propose that we instead maximize our chances of finding the Shrine Maiden today.
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relick
Welcome to Eientei!
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Post by relick on Dec 26, 2015 4:39:11 GMT
How do you propose we do that? Wouldn't everything you've said be exactly what a shrine maiden would say (or a sister) who is close to death?
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Proto
It looks kind of like a big fluffy muffin!
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Post by Proto on Dec 26, 2015 4:56:27 GMT
As for what my plan is, I think all of the Sisters and Babysitters can agree that the Shrine Maiden is definitely the biggest threat in the game. Far more dangerous than the other Sister at this point. Based on that, I would like to propose the following strategy:
1. Every living player will list down the names of two other players that does not contain the Sister that they are allied with. Each player must enter a unique pair of players not entered by an earlier player. The order in which the players will provide their lists can be decided beforehand, but all players must enter two names.
2. After all lists are posted, every player will declare the name of the single player who they believe is most likely to be the Shrine Maiden.
3. After all players make their declarations, the players can place their votes and hope to have the Shrine Maiden lynched.
Since the Shrine Maiden does not know any of the Sisters, they will not be able to figure out from before which two names would be safe for them to pick. In fact, the Shrine Maiden will almost definitely be exposed upon execution of this strategy.
The information provided by the players can certainly be utilized even after the Shrine Maiden is lynched, but it should not reveal too much since the player deductions will depend heavily on their own knowledge of who their Sister is. It can, however, help players guess who their allies will be, but even then, the conclusions will not be definitive until a Sister is exposed (i.e. when the Sister dies). Therefore, the Sister War will not be compromised much by this strategy after the Shrine Maiden is dead.
It is in every Sister's and Babysitter's best interests to be honest in Step 1 i.e. they do not enter their Sister's name. This will maximize the probability of eliminating the Shrine Maiden, and lying about it could generate disunity within their own faction and thus lead them to destruction.
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Proto
It looks kind of like a big fluffy muffin!
Posts: 343
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Post by Proto on Dec 26, 2015 4:57:33 GMT
If you're so sure about me being the Shrine Maiden, I can go first. But the votes need to be removed before this plan is executed.
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relick
Welcome to Eientei!
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Post by relick on Dec 26, 2015 5:34:18 GMT
The information provided by the players can certainly be utilized even after the Shrine Maiden is lynched, but it should not reveal too much since the player deductions will depend heavily on their own knowledge of who their Sister is. It can, however, help players guess who their allies will be, but even then, the conclusions will not be definitive until a Sister is exposed (i.e. when the Sister dies). Therefore, the Sister War will not be compromised much by this strategy after the Shrine Maiden is dead. There are 5 players. That leaves 4 who are not the shrine maiden - two babysitters and two sisters. We have had two babysitter deaths. In the scenario that both babysitters were for the same sister, we have this setup, who can post their two from a pool: Sister A - Sister B, A1 Babysitter, A2 Babysitter, Shrine Maiden Sister B - Sister A, A1 Babysitter, A2 Babysitter, Shrine Maiden A1 Babysitter - Sister B, A2 Babysitter, Shrine Maiden A2 Babysitter - Sister B, A1 Babysitter, Shrine Maiden Shrine Maiden - Sister A, Sister B, A1 Babysitter, A2 Babysitter From the Shrine Maiden's perspective: Everyone gives two names, but one of those may be the Shrine Maiden's own name. In a scenario where no-one said the Shrine Maiden's name, they would know both sisters straight away. Hopefully we won't have that situation. In a scenario where everyone gives a Babysitter name and the Shrine Maiden's name, the Shrine Maiden can still play it by claiming that they're a Babysitter. The fact that each person knows their own Sister is irrelevant since they only know their own sister. In order to conclude without risking losing someone "innocent", they would need to know the opposing Sister too. In fact, I am not convinced that the players gain any more information than the Shrine Maiden does - but thanks to the Shrine Maiden's ability, it is far more useful to them than it is to the rest of us. The only case I can see that would result in the Shrine Maiden being lynched with good chances is if they picked both Sisters whilst neither of the two Babysitters picked the Shrine Maiden. A low chance scenario. Let's also consider the scenario where the babysitters were for different sisters: Sister A - Sister B, A Babysitter, B Babysitter, Shrine Maiden Sister B - Sister A, A Babysitter, B Babysitter, Shrine Maiden A Babysitter - Sister B, B Babysitter, Shrine Maiden B Babysitter - Sister A, A Babysitter, Shrine Maiden Shrine Maiden - Sister A, Sister B, A Babysitter, B Babysitter Pretty similar to before, but the cases are a little different. Worst case scenario for the SM: everyone picks them and a Babysitter such that we have A B A B selected. To be fair in this case, it would lead to the SM being suspicious - but once again, they could play off being a Babysitter. Best case scenario for the SM, no-one picks their name, and they get the identities of both Sisters. Ultimately, this is really similar to the previous case. Arguably, it won't help the SM that they don't know if the Babysitters were the same or not, but it doesn't help us either so our chances are equally slimmed. tl;dr: this method only serves to spread too much info to the Shrine Maiden prior to the death - if it ever happens - putting them in a powerful position to use their ability. |
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