[Mafia] War in the Scarlet Library- Endgame [Scarlet won!]

Why did you choose to vote for ZM though?

##Unvote: ZM
##Vote: Javex

I wanna remind all players that this isn't like a standard Mafia game where the majority are Town who don't know anyone and try to lynch scum, while the Mafia know each other and try to blend in to pretend like Town. In this game, there are two Mafia teams, and they all know exactly who they need to protect, while the Shrine Maiden would try to blend in to pretend like Mafia. So for players who are trying to play like Townies: please stop, it's not very productive. Start voting for people, try to identify your targets, and eliminate them.

Anyhow, looking through the results of D1, ZM was lynched a little too easily. I suspect that the late voters, namely Javex (vexoftheabyss) and Fellow Anti-Lewd VN Reader Sparta Kick Amalgamate (A Certain Remilia) are probably Babysitters, since Sisters / Shrine Maiden would probably avoid attracting attention to themselves for pushing / causing an early hammer. Of the remaining three players, temmie (@timotheth3god) is the most suspicious since he was actually active after ZM hit L-2 but chose to vote for me for a silly reason (for pinging him).

##Unvote: Javex
##Vote: temmie

Suspicions based on...? Also, what kind of "evidence" are you looking for? There are no roles in this game that can provide "evidence" that I'm not the Shrine Maiden. The only evidence I can think of is my flip upon death, but you wouldn't really be able to change your mind after I'm lynched.


Buruma!


Move at my pace...? As opposed to...? Not moving at all?

Alright, I've looked through the ISOs and tried to imagine them from a Shrine Maiden's perspective, and I've decided to

##Unvote: temmie
##Vote: Javex


Every time I look at this, it sounds like something that a Shrine Maiden would NOT say. And that seems to be more prominent than its actual meaning at face value. Suspected ZM as being the Shrine Maiden...? Based on what, me pointing out that his avatar and sig are of shrine maiden Sanae? Because that's a pretty silly reason to suspect someone of being a Shrine Maiden. And you never expressed anything of this sort in your two posts in D1.

No, what makes far more sense to me is that you designed your response to be something that players would not expect a Shrine Maiden to say. It's a classic Mafia strategy: say stuff that you'd expect Townies to say so that players feel inclined to think of you as Town without making it seem like you're putting in effort to defend yourself and sound Townish. Saying that you suspected someone else of being a Shrine Maiden carries the implicit assumption that you're not the Shrine Maiden yourself.

Javex being the Shrine Maiden would explain his activity in D1 as well. His top priority as a Shrine Maiden was self-preservation; he doesn't have any allies that he'll want to subtly unite with, but as the numbers thin down his chances of shooting the Sisters get higher. He started with a neutral post asking what's going on, trying to avoid taking sides and drawing attention. But after he got pinged and ZM was at L-1, he realized that ZM would be a really easy lynch because I was the one who was being really aggressive about it, so he figured that the rest of the players would be blaming me for ZM's death and not him. So he hammered ZM. And on D2, he would justify his vote as being him genuinely suspecting ZM as being a Shrine Maiden and not suspecting the hammer to put them in a disadvantage: an innocent and naive response that subtly implies that he's not the Shrine Maiden.

And then after Kasha starts voting for me, Javex finds this to be a good opportunity to raise his suspicions on me and then vote for me, because again, the players would probably blame Kasha for my death and not him. And the fact that I pushed ZM's lynch on D1 and was pushing people to vote on D2 made me seem like an even safer target, as somebody trying to "spin a web and making us move at his pace"

tl;dr - Javex's actions so far appear to be opportunistic votes that appear to be really safe (i.e. he's not the one drawing in most of the attention in the respective bandwagons), and a post that carries the subtle implication that he's a Shrine Maiden but is otherwise a really silly defense. Sounds like a Shrine Maiden to me.

##Unvote: temmie
##Vote: Javex

Oh, and this is actually a legit serious vote and not a pressure vote: I genuinely think Javex is the Shrine Maiden and I want him lynched.

Oh, wow, I didn't even notice temmie's post there. Do you guys seriously want to rush into a lynch now?

Guys, seriously, I have an idea that should improve our chances of lynching the Shrine Maiden but stop trying to lynch me first!

Nope, you won't catch the Shrine Maiden. If I'm not the Shrine Maiden, your chances of winning are really slim. Remember, the Shrine Maiden can spend all of their kills at the time when they die. Even if you know exactly who the Shrime Maiden is, there is a very high chance that the Shrine Maiden will win anyway and the rest of the players will all lose. I'm not going to get into the details of the probabilities since I'm not going to claim my role or discuss optimal Shrine Maiden strategies, but you can do the math yourself and find that the Shrine Maiden would be in a huge advantage in this situation.

So stop leaving me at L-1 now, please, unless you really want the Shrine Maiden to win.

As for what my plan is, I think all of the Sisters and Babysitters can agree that the Shrine Maiden is definitely the biggest threat in the game. Far more dangerous than the other Sister at this point. Based on that, I would like to propose the following strategy:

1. Every living player will list down the names of two other players that does not contain the Sister that they are allied with. Each player must enter a unique pair of players not entered by an earlier player. The order in which the players will provide their lists can be decided beforehand, but all players must enter two names.

2. After all lists are posted, every player will declare the name of the single player who they believe is most likely to be the Shrine Maiden.

3. After all players make their declarations, the players can place their votes and hope to have the Shrine Maiden lynched.

Since the Shrine Maiden does not know any of the Sisters, they will not be able to figure out from before which two names would be safe for them to pick. In fact, the Shrine Maiden will almost definitely be exposed upon execution of this strategy.

The information provided by the players can certainly be utilized even after the Shrine Maiden is lynched, but it should not reveal too much since the player deductions will depend heavily on their own knowledge of who their Sister is. It can, however, help players guess who their allies will be, but even then, the conclusions will not be definitive until a Sister is exposed (i.e. when the Sister dies). Therefore, the Sister War will not be compromised much by this strategy after the Shrine Maiden is dead.

It is in every Sister's and Babysitter's best interests to be honest in Step 1 i.e. they do not enter their Sister's name. This will maximize the probability of eliminating the Shrine Maiden, and lying about it could generate disunity within their own faction and thus lead them to destruction.

relick Hmmm, not quite the reaction I was hoping for but it was close enough, I guess.

You got the right idea (though my train of thought was slightly different). From the Shrine Maiden's perspective, the three players that are not mentioned by each player will be guaranteed to have at least one Sister each. The Shrine Maiden gets four distinct sets of three players each (and they would likely be mentioned a few times too), which makes it super easy for them to narrow down or even perfectly identify the Sisters.

I figured that if you were a Shrine Maiden (and you were the strongest candidate by far, after Javex died), you'd likely have accepted the proposal because you wouldn't seriously consider the possibility of me being the Shrine Maiden, and you wouldn't point out the problems with my proposal since it would benefit you and you could always blame me for proposing it if somebody calls out against it. On the other hand, if you weren't a Shrine Maiden, I was expecting you to increase your suspicions against me, declaring the proposal as stronger evidence that I'm the Shrine Maiden trying to trick the players through an anti-ShrineMaiden proposal.

Unfortunately, your reaction wasn't quite as strong as I was expecting, but it's enough to kinda convince me that you aren't the Shrine Maiden. Kasha is not the Shrine Maiden. If you were actually the Shrine Maiden and you realized I was trying to lay a trap, then I'll have to applaud you. You've played well and you'll have earned your victory.

I wasn't expecting my suspicions to be wrong though, and I think I'll likely die right now. But I should at least declare who I think is the Shrine Maiden before I die, I guess. Although my suspicions this time are nowhere near as strong as my past suspicions on Javex and Kasha, I think the shrine maiden might be ##Vote: Clear-chan. Every single vote of his was sheeping my own vote. I didn't want to draw attention to this earlier since I wanted to mildly deceive the Shrine Maiden, but at this point I can't overlook the possibility that Clear-chan himself is the Shrine Maiden, and he's latching on to my votes to accelerate the lynches of other players for his own self-preservation, while my aggressiveness against the victims would stand out much more than his sheeping.