[Mafia] War in the Scarlet Library- Endgame [Scarlet won!]

##Unvote: sans
##Vote: Proto

I have some suspicions about potato being the shrine maiden, so I wanna get rid of him early or get some evidence which changes my mind.

Well, I can believe that reasoning. If he turns out not to be the shrine maiden then I'll go back to my previous suspicion of potato.

##Unvote: Proto
##Vote: Vex

Let me tell you something then. Whoever decides to hammer you is in fact the shrine maiden. If no one does, then you're safe and can explain what you want to. It could mean me, or tim, or you are the shrine maiden, or someone else who will now not hammer thanks to this being made public. If you're hammered, though, at least we catch them.

There are 5 players. That leaves 4 who are not the shrine maiden - two babysitters and two sisters. We have had two babysitter deaths.

In the scenario that both babysitters were for the same sister, we have this setup, who can post their two from a pool:
Sister A - Sister B, A1 Babysitter, A2 Babysitter, Shrine Maiden
Sister B - Sister A, A1 Babysitter, A2 Babysitter, Shrine Maiden
A1 Babysitter - Sister B, A2 Babysitter, Shrine Maiden
A2 Babysitter - Sister B, A1 Babysitter, Shrine Maiden
Shrine Maiden - Sister A, Sister B, A1 Babysitter, A2 Babysitter

From the Shrine Maiden's perspective: Everyone gives two names, but one of those may be the Shrine Maiden's own name. In a scenario where no-one said the Shrine Maiden's name, they would know both sisters straight away. Hopefully we won't have that situation. In a scenario where everyone gives a Babysitter name and the Shrine Maiden's name, the Shrine Maiden can still play it by claiming that they're a Babysitter. The fact that each person knows their own Sister is irrelevant since they only know their own sister. In order to conclude without risking losing someone "innocent", they would need to know the opposing Sister too. In fact, I am not convinced that the players gain any more information than the Shrine Maiden does - but thanks to the Shrine Maiden's ability, it is far more useful to them than it is to the rest of us.

The only case I can see that would result in the Shrine Maiden being lynched with good chances is if they picked both Sisters whilst neither of the two Babysitters picked the Shrine Maiden. A low chance scenario.

Let's also consider the scenario where the babysitters were for different sisters:
Sister A - Sister B, A Babysitter, B Babysitter, Shrine Maiden
Sister B - Sister A, A Babysitter, B Babysitter, Shrine Maiden
A Babysitter - Sister B, B Babysitter, Shrine Maiden
B Babysitter - Sister A, A Babysitter, Shrine Maiden
Shrine Maiden - Sister A, Sister B, A Babysitter, B Babysitter

Pretty similar to before, but the cases are a little different. Worst case scenario for the SM: everyone picks them and a Babysitter such that we have A B A B selected. To be fair in this case, it would lead to the SM being suspicious - but once again, they could play off being a Babysitter. Best case scenario for the SM, no-one picks their name, and they get the identities of both Sisters. Ultimately, this is really similar to the previous case. Arguably, it won't help the SM that they don't know if the Babysitters were the same or not, but it doesn't help us either so our chances are equally slimmed.

tl;dr: this method only serves to spread too much info to the Shrine Maiden prior to the death - if it ever happens - putting them in a powerful position to use their ability.

##Vote: Crystal

I don't think I need to explain why, but just follow my logic and proto's logic in our previous few posts and this conclusion should be obvious.

Ah, posts happened whilst I was typing. Thanks for voting for Crystal, Remi.

If Tim isn't the Shrine Maiden then he should vote for you because that means it's one of the other three that aren't him.

Give me good reasons why you think that Tim is the Shrine Maiden, then?

How could you slip a word if you were innocent of being the Shrine Maiden?

Can you tell us what it was you would slip?